Georgian politics today: unchanged trends with dim prospects
By Malkhaz Matsaberidze
Friday, November 11, 2022
The results of the public opinion survey published by IRI once again showed us the current situation in the Georgian political scene.
The trends recorded by the research have been highlighted for a long time, and they show what Georgian society wants, although it is difficult to say how things will develop in the near future.
A recently published study by the "International Republican Institute" (IRI) showed that Georgian society continues to strongly support the country's western orientation. 85% of respondents fully or more or less support Georgia's European aspirations. Among them, the support of 60% is unchanged even if this choice leads to the severance of trade relations with Russia.
Today, Georgia has a unique chance to take a big step towards the realization of the country's European aspirations - it must fulfill 12 requirements of the European Union and receive candidate status. Everyone knows this. But half of the respondents (50%) think that the country will not get this status in 2023.
55% of the respondents are of the opinion that Georgia can fulfill all 12 requirements for obtaining the status. If Georgia does not get the candidate status, according to 64% of respondents, the government will be to blame. Only 8% would blame the opposition parties, and 6% would blame the European Union. These results indicate that in case of failure, it will be difficult for the government to blame the non-receipt of the status either on the opposition or on the EU.
"Georgian Dream" claims that it has developed a plan to fulfill 12 demands of the European Union and is working to fulfill them, but it is already clear that there is great dissatisfaction in the European Parliament regarding this fulfillment and they have a different vision than "Georgian Dream" of what deoligarchization means. They are dissatisfied with the attack on the free media and directly demand the release of Nika Melia, as well as the release of Mikheil Saakashvili and his transfer abroad for treatment.
The survey showed that the political field is polarized again. If there were parliamentary elections tomorrow, only two parties would overcome the current 5% parliament, the ruling "Georgian Dream" (25%) and the main opposition force - the "National Movement" (12%).
Then come two 3% parties (former Prime Minister Giorgi Gakharia and Zurab Girchi Japaridze) and six 2% parties (Giorgi Vashadze's "Strategy Aghmashenebeli", Elene Khoshtaria's "Droa", Labor Party, Anna Dolidze's Party, Girchi and Alliance of Patriots ).
The 1% rating of several other parties, including "Lelo", is significant. The mentioned results of the research shows once again that in order to overcome the polarization of the political spectrum, it is important to lower the electoral threshold to 3 or 2%, which will allow many newly formed parties to enter their representatives in the parliament and continue the party building process.
The IRI research shows once again that the opposite spectrum as a whole has more supporters than the ruling "Georgian Dream".
Under conditions of a low electoral threshold, these parties could already think about creating a coalition in the parliament, but the 5% threshold forces the unification of small parties before the elections. Such a statement has already been made by Strategia Aghmashenebeli, Droa and Zurab Japaridze's Girchi.
If we look at the results of the IRI survey, the majority of respondents support the entry of multiple parties into the parliament. 48% of the surveyed citizens strongly agree that it is healthy for Georgia's democracy to have several parties in power, and another 26% somewhat agree with this opinion. It seems that the citizens believe that the presence of a party coalition in the government is a guarantee that the monopolies of any party will end and the threat of it taking over state institutions.
In general, citizens have a low level of trust in the existing parties. Only 15% of respondents express their trust in the parties, and 35% do not trust them. It should be noted that in March of this year, only 23% expressed distrust. 42% of respondents state that no party expresses their interests.
There is a large number of people who are dissatisfied with the top-rated parties. 33% of the surveyed citizens would not vote for National Movement under any circumstances, and 30% would not vote for the Georgian Dream under any circumstances. Along with expressing dissatisfaction with the existing parties, 72% of respondents would like to see new political parties in the next elections.
Before each parliamentary election, several new parties are formed in Georgia, but it is difficult for them to overcome the 5% threshold. The society also wants to see more young people in politics. This point of view is confirmed by 79% of the respondents. The Georgian society is not clearly formed regarding early parliamentary elections, which the opposition traditionally demanded in the recent period. 34% of respondents unequivocally support it, and the same number unequivocally oppose it.
The survey also shows that the most acute problem facing Georgia has not disappeared. 71% of respondents said that the main problem facing the country is related to the economy and poverty.
The future development of Georgia depends on how the government overcomes economic problems, how much it manages to fulfill the 12 demands of the European Union, and how much the opposition spectrum manages to get out of the crisis and mobilize citizens for active action.
