Georgia and the World in the year 2022
By Malkhaz Matsaberidze
Monday, January 9, 2023
The year 2022 was probably the most difficult of the past two decades of the 21st century. The reason for this was Putin's Russian attack on Ukraine, which began on February 24. After this war, the world, and especially Georgia, found itself in a new reality, and the nature of the new world order will depend on its final results.
We should hope that 2023 will turn out to be a turning point in the course of the Russia-Ukraine war.
Putin's attack on Ukraine was considered by many as an irrational action, although it was the policy that Russia consistently pursued during Putin's rule - it increased the degree of confrontation with the West and became aggressive in the 'post-Soviet space'.
The manifestation of this policy was the attack on Ukraine in 2008, and the attack on Ukraine in 2014, and since these actions of his went virtually unpunished, he decided to finally destroy Ukraine in 2022. This is not an 'irrational' action. This is the logic of the aggressor. This is how Hitler acted. The absorption of Austria and Czechoslovakia with impunity further encouraged his aggressive plans.
In the early 1990s, many were happy that the Soviet Union had collapsed 'peacefully' and compared it to the bloody breakup of Yugoslavia. Although Georgia did not feel this 'peacefulness' and blood was shed in the country, the particular case of Georgia did not change the perception of the general picture for the rest of the world.
But now it can be said that the inevitable "collapse" of the Soviet Union was simply postponed. The political elite of Russia and the Russian society did not give up on the empire, they did not consider the neighboring former Soviet republics as full-fledged sovereign states, sometimes they called them 'near abroad' and sometimes they called them 'post-Soviet space', they talked about restoring the 'fraternal union'.
And in 2022, it turned out that Putin was not trying to restore the Soviet Union (the collapse of which he previously called a 'geopolitical disaster'), but began to restore 'historical Russia', that is, the Russian Empire. If Putin's assumption about the rapid destruction of Ukraine was justified, the same fate awaited other 'post-Soviet' countries.
Fortunately, Putin's imperial calculations did not work out, Ukraine has withstood the Russian attack, and Western support for it is growing. War makes everything black and white and leaves little room for maneuver. The war in Ukraine put the Georgian government in a difficult situation. On the one hand, they claim to be on Ukraine's side and support it in the fight against Russia, as the Prime Minister noted, Georgia has supported Ukraine on practically all platforms since the beginning of the war, joining more than 400 resolutions and statements.
But at the same time, the government of the Georgian Dream has a tense relationship with the government of Ukraine, and many times critical statements have been made to the government of the country at war. Many critical statements were made towards the West as well, which creates certain doubts regarding the real position of the Georgian government.
As for the main event of 2022 for Georgia, Prime Minister Irakli Gharibashvili directly mentioned that it is June 23, 2022 - giving Georgia a European perspective. That's great, but Ukraine and Moldova have already received EU candidate status, and Georgia has been tasked with implementing a 12-point plan to get that status. Initially, the government of Georgia was given a deadline until the end of 2022 to fulfill these points, then this deadline was extended until the end of 2023. The European Union seems to believe that the Georgian authorities have not yet implemented the necessary changes and has given them another year to do so.
The Prime Minister of Georgia said that Georgia has already fulfilled the 12 points, and is ahead of Ukraine and Moldova in terms of reforms, but could not get the candidate status because it is not in a 'state of war' with Russia.
It must be said that the government's main propaganda message in 2022 - "Do you want war" worked well and was convincing for a certain part of society. Probably everyone agrees that the main event for Georgia in foreign policy was the opening of the European perspective and failure to accept the EU membership candidacy. However, the explanation for this failure is different. According to the opposition, the Georgian Dream is to blame for this, while the government blames it on the opposition and the 'unfair' decision of the European Union.
As for domestic politics, its character in 2022 was largely determined by Mikheil Saakashvili's return to Georgia and his stay in prison. This event dramatically increased the degree of polarization in Georgian politics, and at the end of the year, it takes the form of a large-scale confrontation.
According to the opposition, Saakashvili is seriously ill and it is necessary to take him abroad for treatment. The Georgian Dream is not going to do this, and according to its leaders, there is no danger to Saakashvili's life. European parliamentarians, presidents of Ukraine and Moldova, and ambassadors of European countries also demand Saakashvili be transferred abroad for treatment.
The pressure on the leaders of the Georgian Dream in this regard is clearly increasing. Now the final word in this matter belongs either to the judge, who can decide to transfer Saakashvili for treatment or to President Salome Zurabishvili, who can pardon Saakashvili. However, the question is whether they will dare to take such a step without the consent of the Georgian Dream (and Bidzina Ivanishvili).