Georgia's Possible Candidacy for EU Membership: Opportunities and Challenges Ahead
By Malkhaz Matsaberidze
Friday, April 14, 2023
Based on its sources in Brussels, "Radio Liberty" reported that the European Commission is ready to issue a recommendation for Georgia's status as a candidate for EU membership in October 2023. This information was immediately followed in Georgia by discussing how such a decision would affect the internal political situation in Georgia.
As is known, in contrast to Ukraine and Moldova, the European Union has imposed 12 conditions on Georgia, upon fulfillment of which it would be granted the status of a candidate for EU membership. Initially, a 6-month deadline was set for the fulfillment of these requirements, and then this deadline was extended for another year. After naming the 12 demands, a great debate broke out between the government and the opposition in Georgia.
The Georgian Dream claims that they have actually fulfilled the conditions of the European Union for a long time, while according to the opposition, The Georgian Dream only implements bogus reforms and does not really think about fulfilling these requirements. Why does The Georgian Dream not fulfill the 12 requirements of the European Union? The opposition has two clear answers to this, which, in principle, complement each other. According to one answer, this is the government headed by the Russian oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili and acting according to the instructions received from Moscow, and according to the other answer, the fulfillment of 12 demands, which means freeing the government from oligarchic influences, ensuring the independence of the court and electoral reform, will actually be the end of the existing governance system.
The opposition claims that as a result of the sabotage of the Georgian Dream, Georgia will not be able to receive the status of a candidate for EU membership. In case of such a development of events, protests are expected. Both the government and the opposition in Georgia already know very well that society reacts very painfully to everything that threatens Georgia's Western orientation. The Georgian Dream already claims in advance that the radical opposition is preparing for a 'revolutionary scenario'.
The Georgian Dream has been preparing for a long time in the event that Georgia is denied the status of a candidate for the European Union. According to their statements, the West is trying to drag Georgia into the war and they demand that it open a second front against Russia. Government officials claim in advance that not receiving candidate status will be a 'punishment' for not complying with the request to join the war. Accusations have been heard for a long time also against the 'radical' position, which, according to The Georgian Dream, is trying in every way to prevent Georgia from receiving the candidate status.
Denial of the candidate status for Georgia will not only strengthen the anti-Western propaganda on the part of the government but also increase the disillusionment with the West in the society and create a favorable situation for the pro-Russian forces.
"The West has abandoned us again', "Western orientation is an illusion", "Georgia should be with Russia" - such messages are already heard in the pro-Russian media, and refusing the candidacy will only create additional arguments for further distancing from the West.
But how will things develop, if in October 2023 Georgia, despite everything, still receives the status of a candidate for the European Union? It has already been suggested that this will strengthen the positions of The Georgian Dream and will be a heavy blow to the opposition, which claimed that the current government is deliberately blocking the fulfillment of 12 demands.
If we take into account the fact that in 2024 the parliamentary elections of Georgia are expected, the positions of The Georgian Dream will be stronger than that of the fragmented opposition, especially since the elections should still be held in the presence of the 5% threshold. By this logic, it follows that receiving the candidate status will strengthen The Georgian Dream and the existing authoritarian rule.
However, if we take a closer look, receiving the status of a candidate for the European Union brings several benefits: 1. It eliminates the basis for anti-Western propaganda as if someone oppresses Georgia for 'not joining the war'; 2. By establishing a clear prospect of joining the European Union, Georgia will strengthen the forces of Western orientation, and show that the Georgian people are not alone. 4. Receiving the status of a candidate does not mean that reforms will not be necessary, on the contrary. The opposition will have more opportunities to continue the discussion on the implementation of the 12 demands.
It is also noted that the possible acceptance of the EU membership candidate status may have negative consequences for The Georgian Dream - Russia's resentment towards the Georgian government, which The Georgian Dream is seriously afraid of. However, whether Georgia will receive the status of a candidate for EU membership, it will be known after 6 months.
And it is also noted that this readiness of the European Union is accompanied by an unofficial reservation that during this 6-month period, Georgia will not do anything to distance itself from the European Union and will continue to work on reforms. During this period, Georgia will continue to live in conditions of severe polarization, where with the US sanctioning of four judges, a new factor may enter in terms of stimulating the implementation of real reforms.