President's Referendum Idea to Have Electoral Significance
By Malkhaz Matsaberidze
Thursday, June 20, 2024
President Salome Zourabichvili's idea of holding a referendum which she voiced on May 28 received mixed reactions. On June 11, the President clarified what she believed the referendum should be about - support for her proposed "Georgian Charter".
On May 28, after 84 members of parliament overrode the President's veto on the "Russian Law," Salome Zourabichvili called for the collection of signatures to hold a referendum, which should address the question, "Do we want a European future or do we want Russian slavery?"
This initiative by the President was met with scepticism for several reasons: one reason was of a purely technical nature. According to Georgian legislation, a referendum must be held across the entire territory of the country, which is currently impossible due to the Russian occupation of one-fifth of Georgia's territory. However, constitutionalists do not rule out the possibility of bypassing this requirement and point to referendums held under similar conditions in 2003 and 2008.
According to the Constitution of Georgia, the right to demand a referendum belongs to 200,000 voters. Based on this demand, a referendum is scheduled by a presidential decree, which requires the Prime Minister's approval to become effective. If the Prime Minister refuses, the referendum will not take place.It is likely that this initiative by the President will be blocked.
Political reasons were also cited against the President's initiative. Georgia's European and Euro-Atlantic orientation is defined by the referendum held in 2008 and is enshrined in the Georgian constitution. Previously, pro-Russian forces had the idea of holding a new referendum to nullify the results of the 2008 referendum. Some saw hidden motives by Ivanishvili in the President's proposal to hold a referendum, suspecting an attempt to question Georgia's Western orientation.
On June 11, during a meeting with the youth, President Zourabichvili once again spoke about the referendum and elaborated on her position. She noted that Georgia's Euro-Atlantic aspirations are already defined and there is no need to reiterate the constitution. The referendum question should be about the Georgian Charter as an action plan to save the country's European future.
Zourabichvili also acknowledges that the Georgian Dream will block the holding of the referendum through the Prime Minister, but in this case, the main focus will be on collecting signatures in support of the referendum. According to the President, this will be a sort of "pre-election exercise" to introduce the "Georgian Charter" in the regions and gain support.
The opposition responded to Salome Zourabichvili's idea of the Georgian Charter proposed on May 26, and by the deadline set by the President, June 3, the "Georgian Charter" was signed by 17 opposition parties and 5 independent entities.
The parties that signed the Charter commit to fulfilling the Charter's objectives during the spring session if they win the parliamentary elections on October 26, 2024, and to calling early elections by the fall of 2025. Additionally, they pledge to create conditions for free and fair elections. For one year, a technical, non-partisan government, whose members will be nominated by the President, should operate. According to Salome Zourabichvili, the victory of pro-Western political forces in the elections is the only way for the Georgian Charter to succeed. Zourabichvili has promised to strictly monitor the adherence to the principles of the Charter.
Here arises an important issue: how likely is it that Salome Zourabichvili will manage to be re-elected for a second term as president, given that her presidential term ends right after the parliamentary elections in 2024? According to the current constitution, the president is not elected by the people but by an electoral college, which, in addition to the 150 members of parliament, includes an equal number of representatives from the regions. Even if the opposition secures a majority in parliament, this does not ensure their candidate's victory. The Georgian Dream party enjoys significant support in the regions.
Within the opposition political spectrum, there is a critical attitude toward the constitution itself. Some parties believe that Georgia should return to a semi-presidential model where the president is elected by the people. To amend the constitution, the opposition would need 113 votes and two parliamentary sessions, as a constitutional amendment passed by one session must be approved by the parliament convened in the next session.
However, before reaching this point, the opposition needs to win the elections and is eagerly discussing the "winning formula". There was an idea for the pro-Western opposition to run with a unified list in the elections, supported by the United National Movement. However, some pro-Western parties reject the idea of a unified list, as it might actually cause them to lose votes.
The Georgian Charter does not include provisions for forming a consolidated list. Instead, it outlines an action plan in the event of victory. During the parliamentary elections, the pro-Western opposition intends to compete in multiple blocs. However, the challenge lies in each bloc needing to surpass the 5% electoral threshold; otherwise, their votes will not count and may benefit other successful parties, notably the Georgian Dream.
In summary, the opposition faces significant decisions, with their final determination expected shortly before the required 60-day start of the election campaign.