Opposition Seeks Pre-Election Configuration Ahead of 2024 Parliamentary Elections
By Malkhaz Matsaberidze
Wednesday, June 26, 2024
With increasingly less time remaining before the 2024 parliamentary elections, the opposition has yet to decide how to group together in order to defeat the Georgian Dream. It is already clear that the opposition will not be united and is discussing the formation of several electoral lists.
From the outset, it should be noted that by "opposition", we mean those pro-Western political forces that seek to remove Georgian Dream from power and view this as the only way to maintain Georgia's Euro-Atlantic foreign policy course. Current government representatives refer to such political forces as the "radical opposition", in contrast to the "constructive opposition", which are actually satellite parties of Georgian Dream.
Leading up to the 2024 elections, the ruling Georgian Dream has done everything to shape the "rules of the game" to its advantage. It refused to lower the electoral threshold, keeping it at 5%, and also banned the creation of electoral blocs by parties. Political forces wishing to participate in the elections must present a unified electoral list, with the calculation that they can overcome the 5% barrier.
The imprisoned former president of the country, Mikheil Saakashvili, is calling on the pro-Western opposition to run with a unified list and is ready to allocate 50% of the places on the United National Movement's list to other political forces. This call has been met with a negative response from a large part of the opposition, citing several reasons.
Uniting the opposition around the United National Movement is again in Bidzina Ivanishvili's interests, as a bipolar political spectrum is beneficial for him. A significant portion of the electorate finds both the Georgian Dream and the United National Movement unacceptable. Thus, if the opposition creates a unified list, it will receive fewer votes than if it ran separately. Additionally, some pro-Western opposition factions find it unacceptable to create a unified electoral list with the United National Movement. The former ruling party is accused of ignoring democratic principles and establishing an authoritarian system.
It is assumed that the offer from the United National Movement will be received by those political groups that recently left the United National Movement for various reasons. This includes Grigol Vashadze's Strategy Aghmashenebeli, Zurab Japaridze's Girchi - More Freedom, and others. They will still not be able to shake off the image of the United National Movement, which has both positive and negative implications for the elections. Overall, the United National Movement should not struggle to overcome the 5% threshold. Representatives of this party still consider themselves the main opposition force, although some other political groups dispute this.
Rejecting a common list with the United National Movement is one thing; forming an alternative electoral list that can easily overcome the 5% barrier is another.
Many consider Nika Melia and Nika Gvaramia's newly formed party Akhali as one of such political forces. Both leaders were previously associated with the United National Movement, but they have since established themselves as a separate political force. Another question is whether they will be able to establish a different image among the electorate and attract opposition voters for whom the United National Movement is unacceptable.
Two other political forces that are not associated with the United National Movement and are considered candidates for overcoming the 5% barrier are Giorgi Gakharia's party For Georgia, formed by the former Prime Minister of Georgian Dream, and Mamuka Khazaradze's Lelo, created by a former banker. Gakharia and Khazaradze had a tense relationship, but recently Gakharia did not rule out forming a joint list with Lelo. There has been no definite response from Lelo yet, but the representatives of the government and pro-government experts have expressed great outrage, saying that the opposition is completely unprincipled, remarking that the former enemies might unite for the elections.
There are three or four pro-Western electoral lists likely to surpass the 5% threshold. The main issue they agree on is foreign policy and the maintenance of the Western political vector. As for domestic political issues, debate is still minimal. In this sense, the upcoming parliamentary elections indeed have the character of a referendum, as President Salome Zourabichvili states.
Will these pro-Western forces be able to fully attract the protest electorate, especially the youth, who were the main force behind the protests against the Russian law? The answer is still unclear. The past has shown that protest movements and opposition political parties operate separately.
What will happen if all three or four mentioned pro-Western opposition forces overcome the barrier and enter parliament? According to current forecasts, they will be able to gain a majority and form a government. This is perhaps the most optimal scenario, but what if the upcoming elections are marred by significant violations, and the election campaign is unfair and violent? No one is talking about this domestically yet, but additional sanctions are being considered in the West for such a case.