Georgian Politics Faces Leadership Crisis Amidst Upcoming Elections
By Malkhaz Matsaberidze
Tuesday, July 9, 2024
For several years now, there has been talk about the absence of charismatic leaders dominating Georgian politics, and this is considered very beneficial for the development of parties and ideologies. However, if we take a closer look, today's Georgian politics not only lacks strong charismatic leaders but is also experiencing a general crisis of political leadership. This applies to both the opposition and the ruling Georgian Dream party.
Throughout almost the entire post-Soviet period, charismatic leaders have dominated Georgian politics, succeeding one another. Georgia's first three presidents, Zviad Gamsakhurdia, Eduard Shevardnadze, and Mikheil Saakashvili, were all charismatic leaders, just as the current leader in power, Bidzina Ivanishvili, is today.
It is possible that Mikheil Saakashvili, who is currently in prison, and Bidzina Ivanishvili, who has returned to politics for the third time, are the most prominent figures in Georgian politics today. However, they no longer dominate the political scene with their ratings. Along with the decline in the popularity of the existing charismatic leaders, no new charismatic leader has truly emerged on the political stage.
It is evident that Georgian politics does not lack parties and individuals aspiring for leadership; quite the opposite, there is an abundance of them. However, their popularity is not high. This applies to both the opposition and the ruling government. A notable incident occurred on July 2 during the celebratory reception for Georgian footballers returning from the European Championship - the gathered crowd greeted the Prime Minister with expressions of dissatisfaction and did not allow him to speak.
His lectures at Tbilisi State University were also linked to protest actions. It is clear that the negative sentiment against the Prime Minister was fueled by his anti-Western statements. Meanwhile, "Georgian Dream" is expected to publish its electoral list ahead of the parliamentary elections on October 26, and it is customary for the acting Prime Minister to head the list. There is talk in the media that among the current faces of "Georgian Dream," the most popular is the Mayor of Tbilisi, Kakha Kaladze, and it is not ruled out that he might be at the top of the list.
Kobakhidze's lectures at Tbilisi State University were also associated with protest actions. It is clear that the negative sentiment against the Prime Minister was caused by his anti-Western statements. Meanwhile, Georgian Dream is expected to publish its electoral list ahead of the parliamentary elections on October 26, and, according to tradition, it should be headed by the acting Prime Minister. There is talk in the media that among the current faces of Georgian Dream, the most popular is the Mayor of Tbilisi, Kakha Kaladze, and it is not ruled out that he might be at the top of the list.
Georgian Dream has only one real leader - Bidzina Ivanishvili, upon whom the ruling party is heavily reliant. Ivanishvili's word is decisive in forming the government or Georgian Dream's electoral list. It does not matter that Ivanishvili has announced his departure from and return to politics several times over the past 12 years.
Ivanishvili himself entered Georgian politics as a charismatic leader with broad promises. His party has been in power since 2012, and as the number of unfulfilled promises increased, his popularity and ratings decreased proportionally. On July 2, even Ivanishvili would not have dared to speak in front of the spontaneously gathered crowd that came to meet the footballers. Since returning to politics, Ivanishvili has only publicly spoken on April 29 of this year, and that was in front of a specially mobilised audience across Georgia.
Ivanishvili himself entered Georgian politics as a charismatic leader with broad promises. His party has been in power since 2012, and as the number of unfulfilled promises increased, his popularity and ratings decreased proportionally. On July 2, even Ivanishvili would not have dared to speak in front of the spontaneously gathered crowd that came to meet the footballers. Since returning to politics, Ivanishvili has only publicly spoken on April 29 of this year, and that was in front of a specially mobilised audience from across Georgia.
The majority of current opposition leaders have been involved in politics for many years, establishing their credibility and gaining the trust and support of a significant portion of the electorate. During the recent protests under the backdrop of the Russian law, opposition politicians refrained from actively participating, while those outside the political sphere organised and led protests.
There is no leader in the pro-Western opposition who can unite the entire opposition. It should be noted that the imprisoned Mikheil Saakashvili offers the entire pro-Western opposition to come out with a single electoral list on behalf of the "National Movement", but a significant part of the opposition parties refuses such a union precisely because they do not want to be associated with Mikheil Saakashvili and the "National Movement".
It so happened that President Salome Zurabishvili was entrusted with a unique unifying function in the pro-Western opposition. Zurabishvili was elected president with the support of Georgian Dream and Bidzina Ivanishvili personally, but in the background of Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the strengthening of criticism of the West by Georgian Dream, Salome Zurabishvili turned out to be the figure in the Georgian government who became the defender and flag bearer of the country's pro-Western course.
But in a certain part of the opposition, distrust of Salome Zurabishvili remains due to her earlier statements.
There is less and less time left before the parliamentary elections on October 26, and we should not expect new political leaders and new political subjects to appear who can overcome the 5% threshold. Most likely, new faces will appear in the lists of already existing parties. How much this will increase their rating is another matter.